Where Is The Tipping Point?

On September 11, 2001, a total of 2,976 people died as a result of the terrorist attacks on New York City and Washington, DC.

As of this morning, 2,980 U.S. service men and women had been killed in Iraq and Afghanistan since September 11. It is significant to me that the second number now exceeds the first. For some reason, exceeding the number of deaths on 9/11 in the response to 9/11 matters to me.

Tony Snow would probably say, as he did when the 2,500th soldier died in Iraq, “It’s just a number.” But, 2,976 isn’t just a number; it’s an indelible watermark that defines the purpose and seriousness of our response to that act of terror. 2,976 Americans and visiting foreign nationals were killed on our soil that day and there had to be an accounting for that despicable act. So, we rightfully declared, “Let’s roll,” and headed into Afghanistan with the support of the American people, the Congress and the world community. Osama bin Laden and his Taliban-supported organization operating out of Afghanistan were our targets. Very few people dissented.

Then, we turned our focus to Saddam Hussein and rolled into Iraq in full force, with less support at home and abroad. From the invasion on March 19, 2003, until the cessation of major combat on May 1, 2003, with the accompanying declaration of “Mission Accomplished”, only 140 U.S. troops were killed in Iraq. The remaining 2,507 Americans killed in Iraq have died in the subsequent fight with Sunni and Shiite insurgents.

Now, 2,980 Americans have died in our rolling response in this two-front war. That number has probably gone up since I checked the count early this morning. (Pause to check again)

Sadly, what I intended as an offhand remark is anything but. As of this afternoon, the tally now reads 2,986 Americans dead in Iraq and Afghanistan. The scale continues to tip. I wonder if I can get this posted before another American dies.

Of course, the total number of people killed in Afghanistan and Iraq long ago exceeded the number killed on September 11, as evidenced by the following additional counts as of this afternoon:

§ 368 troops from the U.K. and other Coalition countries have been killed in Iraq and Afghanistan, bringing the total number of U.S. and Coalition deaths to 3,354.

§ 5,323 Iraqi police and military troops have been killed in fighting the insurgency since the fall of Baghdad in 2003 (another estimate says 6,167). That means that a total of at least 8,677 U.S., Coalition and Iraqi military personnel have been killed in the fighting. No one knows how many insurgent fighters have been killed. As General Tommy Franks said, “We don’t do body counts.” The Brookings Institution estimates that 65,000 insurgents have been killed or detained since May 2003.

§ 349 non-Iraqi civilian contractors have been killed since the invasion of Iraq; the majority of them have been from the U.S. and Coalition countries.

§ 98 journalists have been killed covering the war in Iraq; the overwhelming majority of them have been from Iraq and other Middle East countries.

§ I’ve found few estimates of the number of civilians killed in Afghanistan since the U.S.-led invasion began in October 2001. A fairly consistent estimate is that 4,000 – 5,000 civilians died there by the end of 2002. I have found no estimate of the number killed since. The only thing we know for sure is that the number of civilian deaths there since the end of 2002 isn’t zero.

§ At least 40,000 to 50,000 Iraqi civilians have been killed since the invasion of Iraq. About 10% of those people have been killed just since July 1, 2006, a little more than two months time. Some estimates of Iraqi civilian deaths run as high as 80,000 – 100,000 or more (see the study published by The Lancet, an independent, peer-reviewed medical journal, on October 29, 2004).

The numbers in the last two bullets are the deaths for which the U.S. and its Coalition partners must be accountable. The dead in that column are civilians, just like the civilians who died on 9/11. They’re not part of any volunteer military force whose duty puts them in harm’s way. These include women, children, the elderly, and non-combatant men who are dying by the dozens, and sometimes dozens upon dozens, every day in Iraq. In July it was more than 100 a day.

In addition to those killed, 20,174 U.S. service members have been wounded in Afghanistan and Iraq. More than 2,000 troops from the U.K. and other Coalition countries have been wounded. Many of the wounded have been severely maimed; they’re missing arms and legs; they’ve been blinded; they’ve suffered debilitating brain injuries; they’ve been badly burned over significant areas of their bodies, including their faces. Thousands of these lives have been forever altered.

The official count of the wounded doesn’t include those who have been sent home due to mental stress or breakdown. There are estimates of 10,000 – 12,000 in this category. According to the Journal of the American Medical Association, 35% of all service members sent to Iraq are returning home and seeking mental health services and 20% return with some degree of post-traumatic stress disorder or similar mental health problem. The study reported by JAMA only covered service members who returned before April 30, 2004.

The number of wounded Iraqi civilians cannot be determined but it’s safe to assume that, as with U.S. and Coalition casualties, it’s far more than the number of civilians killed. If the wounded-to-killed ratio were the same for civilians as it is for the military that would suggest that more than 300,000 Iraqi civilians have been wounded.

These are the numbers as of this afternoon. Make of them what you will.

The questions in my mind today are: has the scale tipped? If the scale hasn’t tipped, when will it tip? Does one number ever outweigh the other? If so, which one and what is that number? If not, why not? If the price in human lives paid to date in this war isn’t enough, when will it be enough? What number breaks the scale?

Those are my questions as of this afternoon. Make of them what you will.