The Body Count

A controversial study by American and Iraqi public health researchers from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health estimates that 601,027 Iraqi civilians have died violent deaths since the U.S. invasion in March 2003 – about 15,000 a month or 500 a day.

The study says the mortality rate since the war began is 3.6 times higher than the rate before the war. Gunshots accounted for 56% of the violent deaths, the largest cause; car bombs accounted for 13%. Coalition military action is reportedly responsible for 31% of the violent deaths since March 2003. That percentage has declined from 2003 to 2006, which indicates that as time goes by the sectarian violence between Sunnis and Shiites is causing an increasingly higher loss of life than the military operations.

U.S. and Iraqi officials dispute these findings. The John Hopkins monthly estimate is four times higher than the monthly estimate issued by the Iraqi government for July, which was the highest month for civilian deaths since the invasion. The most recent U.S. military report estimates the daily casualty rate rose from 26 a day in 2004 to almost 120 a day in August 2006. The most recent U. N. figure assumes a daily rate of about 97.

The Johns Hopkins researchers claim that the new study is statistically more valid than an earlier and equally controversial study published in The Lancet. They point out that this study used a method similar to the one used to estimate violent deaths in Darfur and the Congo. The New York Times reports that U.S. statistics experts who have reviewed the Johns Hopkins study say the methods used appear to be legitimate. But, the researchers acknowledge that the study is not a precise count and has a margin of error ranging from 426,369 to 793,663 deaths.

We don’t need to accept the 600,000 number to be stunned by the study. If the study is two to three times as high as it should be, and the number of violent deaths is “only” 200,000 – 300,000, that’s stunning enough. In fact, if the correct number of violent deaths in Iraq is “only” 100,000 that is twice the number being used in various government estimates.

The Johns Hopkins study can be far off the mark and still be a stark reminder of the full cost being paid for the unabated violence in Iraq. The value of the life of an innocent Iraqi is the same as the value of the life of an innocent American and we can’t ignore the fact that the cost of the war and resulting sectarian violence in Iraq isn’t measured by just the number of Coalition forces who are killed. The latter number continues to grow and is bad enough, but if Iraqis are dying at the rate of 50:1 or 100:1, much less 200:1, then we must unite around a new course of action in that country as soon as possible.

Mr. Baker, please send us that report of yours quickly, if you don't mind.