Five Years and Counting

A few observations on this September 11th:

Osama bin Laden is still at large and al-Qaeda is still very active. A compelling argument can be made that al-Qaeda is stronger and more active now than it was five years ago today.

The Taliban is reasserting itself in Afghanistan. Its resurgence is so significant that this year Afghanistan has the biggest opium harvest ever recorded, almost 50% larger than last year. The Taliban provides support and protection for the Afghan opium industry.

There have been no weapons of mass destruction found in Iraq, nor has any demonstrated capacity to develop weapons of mass destruction been found in Iraq. It’s safe to say at this point that none will be found.

The president, vice president and secretary of defense have now publicly acknowledged on several occasions that there was no connection between Saddam Hussein and the 9/11 attacks.

The recently declassified report from the Republican-led Senate Intelligence Committee finds that there was no connection between Saddam Hussein and al-Qaeda. In fact, according to the report, Saddam wanted Abu Musab al-Zarqawi arrested as a disruptive force and considered al-Qaeda to be a threat to his regime.

The Senate report includes a summary of an FBI report in which Saddam claims that Iraq only opposed U.S. policies. According to the FBI report, Saddam said that "if he wanted to cooperate with the enemies of the U.S., he would have allied with North Korea or China."

In July 2006, former CIA Director George Tenet told the Intelligence Committee that the White House pressured him to back up the administration's case for war despite his agents' doubts about the intelligence it was based on. Tenet told the committee that complying with that pressure was "the wrong thing to do."

Democrats on the committee said that on October 7, 2002, the day the president gave a speech that linked Saddam and 9/11, the CIA sent a declassified letter to the committee saying it would be an "extreme step" for Saddam to help Islamist terrorists attack the U.S.

A senior Defense Department official recently told the media that, “The insurgency has gotten worse by almost all measures, with insurgent attacks at historically high levels.” A Defense Intelligence Agency report dated August 3 makes similar observations, noting that the number of daily insurgency strikes against Americans and Iraqi security forces has doubled since January.

Specifically, the number of roadside bombs planted in Iraq and targeted at American service members rose in July to the highest monthly total since the beginning of the war. In July, 2,625 bombs were discovered, of which 1,666 exploded. In January, a total of 1,454 exploded or were discovered, 45% fewer than in July.

Military commanders see the roadside bomb statistic as an important measure of insurgent strength because bomb attacks require a network: sources of financing; sources of materials; bomb makers; operatives to dig the holes, plant the bombs, watch for approaching forces, and detonate the bombs.

General John Abizaid, the U.S. military commander in the Middle East, told the Senate Armed Services Committee last month that Sunni-Shiite sectarian violence is “probably as bad as I’ve seen it, in Baghdad in particular”, noting that if it persisted “it is possible that Iraq could move towards civil war.”

General Peter Pace, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, agreed with General Abizaid’s assessment. Senator John McCain asked General Pace to confirm that there is now a possibility of civil war and General Pace did so. Senator McCain then asked, “Did you anticipate this situation a year ago?” General Pace said, “No, sir.”

Republican Senator John Warner, Chairman of the Armed Services Committee and a staunch supporter of the administration’s policy in Iraq, responded that the Armed Services Committee might have to reexamine whether the congressional authorization to use U.S. force in Iraq would be valid if Iraq fell into a civil war.

General George Casey, the U.S. military commander in Iraq, had indicated in recent months that the level of U.S. forces in Iraq might be significantly reduced by the end of this year, but General Abizaid noted, “Since the time that General Casey made that statement, it’s clear that the operational and the tactical situation in Baghdad is such that it requires additional security forces, both U.S. and Iraqi.” Thousands of additional troops have been sent into Baghdad in recent weeks.

A senior military affairs expert who received a briefing on Iraq at the White House last month has said that, “Senior administration officials have acknowledged to me that they are considering alternatives other than democracy” in Iraq.

On September 4th, I wrote about the number of U.S., Coalition and Iraqi military troops who have died in Afghanistan and Iraq. In the last week, 19 more U.S. troops, five more Coalition troops, and 42 more Iraqi troops have died. The total number of U.S. troops killed now stands at 3,005. While those numbers are significant, they’re relatively small when compared to the number of civilians killed in Iraq and Afghanistan since the war began.

After outlining the numbers on September 4th, I simply said, “Make of them what you will.” After making the above observations on September 11th, I again invite you to make of them what you will.

As I remember those who died on September 11, 2001, and those who have died since that horrific day, I know what I make of them.