Just Another Bunch of Numbers?

Today marks one of the numerical mileposts in the war in Iraq that will be significant to some people and meaningless to others. Undoubtedly, Tony Snow will regard it as “just a number,” as he did when the 2,000th and 2,500th U.S. soldier was killed in Iraq. Today is the 1,347th day since the invasion of Iraq – the same number of days it took to fight, and win, World War II.

WWII involved two fronts on two continents with all of Europe and much of Asia being engulfed in the battle. The war in Iraq is fundamentally centered in Baghdad and three provinces. After 1,347 days, victory is not in sight in Iraq. In fact, it’s uncertain what would constitute victory in Iraq now. If victory entails defeating the terrorist insurgency, quelling the centuries-old sectarian violence, securing a democratic form of government that is capable of providing and protecting constitutional rights and freedom, and rebuilding the most fundamental elements of the country’s infrastructure destroyed by the war, then that victory isn’t likely to be achieved in another 1,347 days, or in the 1,347 days that follow.

According to the U.N., last month produced the highest number of civilian deaths since the war began – over 3,700; more than 120 a day. In the last two months, 7,000 civilians have died; 10,000 in the last three months. On our Thanksgiving Day last week, 161 civilians died in Iraq, mostly in Baghdad. Victory, by any definition, must include substantial security for the non-combatants in Iraq. The death toll may never be zero, but we’re not even on the road to victory as long civilian deaths are steadily increasing.

As of November 4, the U.N. High Commissioner on Refugees estimated that 1.8 million Iraqis have been displaced to neighboring countries, and another 1.6 million have been displaced internally. Nearly 100,000 Iraqis flee to Syria and Jordan each month. Every month the number of passports and exit visas issued by the Iraqi government goes up. Victory, by any definition, must include sufficient stability to retain the intellectual capital and the other essential human resources that will sustain the economic and social strength of a new Iraq.

The direct dollar cost of the war to the U.S. alone is now approaching $350 billion with current spending running at more than $200 million a day. The indirect economic costs are far higher. Of course, the U.S. cost that matters the most is the fact that we’re approaching 3,000 U.S. troop deaths in Iraq.

As we enter December and await the recommendations from the Iraq Study Group headed by James Baker, and then enter January and await the arrival of a Democrat-controlled Congress, we appear to be approaching a crucial crossroad in the war in Iraq. To some, the human and economic impacts noted above may be just another bunch of numbers. To me, they collectively constitute a demand for clarity in our strategic direction and tactical objectives on the road ahead. Crossroads demand clear decisions. We owe that clarity to every man and woman in uniform who continues to walk in harm’s way. We owe that to the civilians in Iraq and to those who have fled their homes and their country in order to protect their families. We owe that to the American taxpayer. We owe that to the tens of millions of Americans and the hundreds of millions of other people in need of help in the world who could benefit from the expenditure of $200 million a day.

It’s time.