Leo vs. Gemini in the House of Representatives

Last week the U.S. House of Representatives passed a nonbinding resolution disapproving the president’s plan to increase combat troop levels in Iraq by more than 21,000 (which doesn’t count the 20,000 other troops that must be added to support that combat troop “surge”). The outcome of this vote was never in doubt. The only question was how many Rebs would cross the aisle and join the Dims in supporting this congressional rebuke of the administration. The answer to that question was 17, with only two Dims crossing the partisan divide in the other direction.

With the partisan split being largely a foregone conclusion, I was interested in other breakdowns of the 246 – 182 vote (there were six no-shows; one seat is unfilled). A friend pointed out a Washington Post website that reports congressional voting statistics. The vote on this resolution reveals some semi-informative observations.

Of those voting, 71% of the female House members voted in favor of the resolution. One conclusion: women don’t like this war. A more intriguing possibility is that women are less inclined to support any war or are at least quicker to come to the conclusion that a given war effort is no longer supportable. I don’t want to go too far down the sexist equivalent of a dark alley, but as a voter I’m interested in what gender differences may bring to the table in Washington. Do wives, mothers, sisters, and daughters see war through different eyes than their male counterparts? I can only speculate. I’ll have to leave the real answer, to the extent there is one, to the social scientists – and to women.

The age breakdown for this vote might be more surprising. The strongest support for this resolution came from the pre-boomers, members born before the end of World War II. 67.5% of the members in this age group voted in favor. The next highest age-based support came from the post-boomers, members born after 1960, with 57.5% of these younger members voting in favor. The voted was closer for the baby boomers in the House, which is by far the largest age category, with 53% supporting the resolution. One conclusion: older people are less inclined to support this war; perhaps any war. Perhaps they’ve lived long enough to see the results of various and sundry wars, revolutions and other armed conflicts and have learned that the fighting often doesn’t solve much in the long run and its cost can be staggering. Similarly, younger people may not be as quick to give up their ideals of peace and diplomacy. They’re also closer in age to the young men and women who make the ultimate sacrifice on any battlefield.

The regional breakdown of this vote was predictable. The strongest support came from the Northeast bastion of liberalism, where 71% of the members from this region supported the resolution. The least support came from the South, where only 47.5% of the members voted in favor, making the South the only region that didn’t have a majority of its members in favor. 57.5% of the members from the West and 55.5% from the Midwest supported it.

Moving into the decidedly trivial stats, the Post’s website also reports on a voting breakdown by astrological sign. This head nod to cultural fascination, while irrelevant, is somewhat interesting. I suspect that people who make something out of astrology can find some kind of meaning in the breakdown. That meaning escapes me. Anyway, there were only two astrological groups of House members who opposed the resolution – Gemini and Capricorn. Only 46% of the Gemini members, which is the largest astrological group in the House, voted in favor. In contrast, 63% of the second largest astrological group, the Cancer members, voted in favor. Leo provided the strongest support for the resolution – 68%. Capricorn, Libra and Sagittarius were each within one or two votes of being evenly divided.

What’s the takeaway here? I guess it’s this: if you’re opposed to this war in particular or the use preemptive force in general, then you should hope for the election of more women from the Northeast who were born under the sign of Leo. On the other hand, it you support this war or preemptive strikes, then you should hope for the election of more men from the South who are under the influence of Gemini.

Like I said – semi-informative. Maybe.