Success and the Commander Guy

President Bush has come up with a new nickname for himself. On Wednesday, when speaking to the Associated General Contractors of America, “the decider’’ was discussing his veto of the Iraq war spending bill that included a timeline for troop withdrawal. He said:

“The question is, ‘Who ought to make that decision, the Congress or the commanders?’’ Mr. Bush said. “As you know, my position is clear – I’m the commander guy.”

But, the Commander Guy wasn’t through dazzling the audience with his adroit turn of a memorable phrase. Next, he offered a penetrating and deeply nuanced assessment of whether his new strategy in Iraq will be successful.

"… slowly but surely, the truth will be known. Either we’ll succeed, or we won’t succeed.”

Insert at this point the now patented head-bobbing smirk and muffled giggle. While I’m well beyond tired of watching that smirk, it didn’t bother me nearly as much as the almost casual dismissal of the cost of the war that is embedded in “slowly but surely”. But that didn’t bother me nearly as much as the nonchalant shrug that was embodied in the simple-headed comment, “Either we’ll succeed, or we won’t succeed.” That statement signaled a disturbing detachment from the death and destruction that goes on under his command. I found it disrespectful of the U.S. troops and the innocent Iraqis who continue to be killed day after day.

Sensing that this flippant remark required just a tad more explanation, the Commander Guy went on to proffer his newly-minted definition of “success”:

“And the definition of success as I described is ‘sectarian violence down’. Success is not ‘no violence’."

Hey, just the day before he said that sectarian violence is down – ergo, we have succeeded in Iraq and we can leave. Hell, if he’d just tossed out this tripwire for American withdrawal earlier then at least the Shia militias would have stopped fighting in a nanosecond so that we could declare “success” for the second time and then leave for the first time.

As for the second sentence in the president’s definition, I confess that I’m not real good at interpreting double negatives, but doesn’t “success is not ‘no violence’” mean that “success is violence”? Well, we’ve achieved success under that standard as well; so, time to go.

Sensing that three- and four-word definitions might prove problematic, the president added an important benchmark by saying:

“There are parts of our own country that have got a certain level of violence to it.”

I think he’s saying we need Iraq at least to get closer to being like Detroit or Washington, DC.

Finally, the Commander Guy set forth a standard for success that most of us can understand; one that we’ll know when we see it. He said:

“But success is a level of violence where the people feel comfortable about living their daily lives. And that's what we're trying to achieve.”

OK, that’s something we can work with because most of know something about feeling comfortable about living our daily lives. Under that definition, there is no meaningful chance that Iraqis are going to feel comfortable about living their daily lives until the following nine things happen:

1) the Sunnis and the Shia stop killing each other at a rate greater than that found in certain parts of America; 2) markets, bus stations, police stations, restaurants, libraries and colleges stopping getting blown to smithereens; 3) Iraqi security forces are actually forces to be reckoned with; 4) the Iranians and Syrians stop trying to intervene in the Shia-dominated government in Iraq; 5) the Saudis and Jordanians stop threatening to intervene to protect the Sunni minority in Iraq; 6) the Kurds and the Turks solve that gnarly little border problem they’ve had for several decades (or is it centuries?); 7) the Sunnis and the Kurds become full participants in the Shia-dominated government in Iraq; 8) Sunnis be allowed to hold any job other than trash collector and hod carrier; and 9) all three groups figure out how to divide the billions of dollars of national oil revenue that constitutes the lifeblood of the country.

Actually, there are more things, but I didn’t want the list to get into double digits. The point is – there’s not a Popsicle’s chance in hell that Iraqis are going to feel comfortable about living their daily lives before the year 2525 (cue Zager & Evans). “Success” by any definition this president is likely to endorse is an infinitesimally low probability.
Unlike Senator Harry Reid, I don’t say the war in Iraq is lost. Like General David Petraeus, I say the mission in Iraq cannot be accomplished through U.S. military action. Therefore, it’s time for the U.S. military to develop and implement a plan to leave.